With the midterm elections fast approaching, voters are — ideally — very carefully weighing their options and scrutinizing candidates based on their affiliations, beliefs, past performances, and platforms.
Big names in politics have spent hefty sums of money for their campaign, but they aren’t far off from smaller opposition candidates struggling to gain traction, according to the recent Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey on voter preferences for senatorial candidates. Allies of former President Rodrigo Duterte, who once enjoyed the privilege of the majority, have also been falling behind the more popular bets from the camp of current President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.
How these dynamics play out in the May elections remains to be seen. For now, we break down the biggest questions for the 2025 senatorial race.
Why are the Tulfos so popular?
ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo ranked first in the voter preferences survey, with his brother Ben Tulfo ranking sixth. As mainstays in the broadcast industry — along with their brother Senator Raffy Tulfo — they’re known for their tough, hands-on approach to justice and social welfare, which they facilitate through their respective radio and TV programs.
It appears that in Marcos’ senate slate, Congressman Erwin Tulfo fills the tough-guy gap that Duterte’s allies left in the feud between the president and vice president. And to supporters and voters, the heavy-handedness of the Tulfo name is a promise of their decisiveness as lawmakers.
Will Imee Marcos and Camille Villar continue to drop in the Polls?
According to the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ), Las Piñas Representative Camille Villar and Senator Imee Marcos each aired advertisements worth P1 billion in the nine-month period before the filing of certificates of candidacy (COCs) in October 2024. However, the SWS survey shows that they failed to make the top 12 senatorial bets.
As it turns out, incessant advertising doesn’t guarantee a win. But with three months left, maybe changing their campaign strategies — or shelling out even more cash for ads — could turn the tide.
Is Bato Dela Rosa at risk of leaving the top 12?
The same survey by research firm Social Weather Stations showed that Senator Bato Dela Rosa got close to leaving the top 12, ranking 10th and only saved by the three-way tie between Senator Bong Revilla, TV personality Willie Revillame, and former Sen. Kiko Pangilinan.
However, the no. 10 position is an improvement from Dela Rosa’s previous standing. In the December 2024 survey, he ranked 12-14 in a tie with Marcos and Villar. So unlike the other two, things may be looking up for the former chief of the Philippine National Police.
Is there hope for opposition candidates?
The survey’s results show that most opposition candidates are several steps behind the majority candidates. President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s senatorial bets dominate the top 13, with the Liberal Party’s Pangilinan standing as an outlier. Katipunan ng Nagkakaisang Pilipino’s (KNP) former Senator Bam Aquino falls just outside of the top candidates, ranking 16th to 17th in a tie with media personality Doc Willie Ong. Other opposition candidates include ACT-Teachers Representative France Castro, Bukluran ng Manggagawang (BMP) Pilipino Chairperson Leody De Guzman, former Bayan Muna Rep. Teddy Casiño, BMP President Luke Espiritu, and Federation of Free Workers President Sonny Matula.
Is the Duterte bloc’s influence waning?
Of former President Rodrigo Duterte’s allies, only Bong Go landed in the top 5 senatorial bets. Other PDP-Laban bets are scattered throughout the rankings, with former actor Ipe Salvador ranking 20th and 21st, singer Jimmy Bondoc in 25th and 26th, and former Presidential Adviser for North Luzon Raul Lambino ranking somewhere between 35 and 55. SAGIP Rep. Rodante Marcoleta, a Duterte supporter, also finds himself out of the top 12, ranking 23rd.
Even more surprising, the House of Representatives recently voted to impeach Vice President Sara Duterte. And while that doesn’t mean that she is automatically removed from office, it’s a sign that the Dutertes’ influence in the legislature — or at least in the lower chamber — may indeed be slipping.
