With Episode 5 out this week, we’re officially past the halfway mark of House of the Dragon Season 3. And if the major character deaths in the first few episodes are any indication, the body count is only going to climb from here.
With a fourth and final season expected to come out in 2028, the series still has plenty of ground left to cover in the Dance of the Dragons. But in Westeros, survival is rarely guaranteed, even for the characters who seem most indispensable. House of the Dragon has also already made a few significant departures from George R. R. Martin’s Fire & Blood, which the show is based on, so there’s no saying who showrunner Ryan Condal chooses to kill off or spare.
Regardless of the canon, here’s our ranking of the House of the Dragon characters who look most and least likely to die by the Season 3 finale.
Criston Cole: Most Likely to Die
Ser Criston (Fabien Frankel) has spent much of the season acting like a man with nothing left to lose (because it’s true). If there’s anything we learned about him in Episode 5, it’s that he’s openly embraced the idea of dying in battle, marching his soldiers towards certain death, and romanticizes the idea of dying a “great warrior” on the battlefield.
Gwayne Hightower: Least Likely to Die
Unlike his fellow commander, Gwayne Hightower (Freddie Fox) is much more interested in staying alive and returning to the comfort of his home in Oldtown. When Criston confesses that he knows they’re doomed, Gwayne abandons their suicide mission. Now, we need to know why Condal chose not to kill him off when he should have died earlier in the season, if we were to follow the events of Fire & Blood.
Ormund Hightower: Most Likely to Die
Season 3 appears to be steering toward the First Battle of Tumbleton, which would finally throw Ormund (James Norton) into the kind of large-scale conflict that has been looming all season. He’s a capable commander and could use his cunning to get out of a tense situation for sure, but he’s also remarkably hubristic. The chaos of a battle could easily ruin his best-laid plans. And while a dragon may save his pawn-king, Daeron (Benjamin Evan Ainsworth), the gods may not look so favorably upon Ormund himself.
Aemond Targaryen: Least Likely to Die
For better or worse, Aemond (Ewan Mitchell) is built like a final boss: incredibly, frustratingly resilient. He commands Vhagar, the largest living dragon, and remains one of the most formidable fighters in the war. Now, he even has the witch, Alys Rivers (Gayle Rankin), firmly in his corner. The book gives him a reason to stick around longer, so we don’t expect him to die this season. But as with the rest of the Game of Thrones franchise, anything could happen.
Aegon Targaryen: Most Likely to Die
Aegon (Tom Glynn Carney) is arguably the most miserable man in Westeros right now, next to Criston. Broken in body, increasingly isolated, and fueled almost entirely by pride, he seems determined to prove he’s still a king despite everyone believing he’s already dead. The combination of his recklessness and wounded ego is lethal, and if he doesn’t get out of Rook’s Rest soon, he could die a nobody.
Rhaenyra Targaryen: Least Likely to Die
If Jace hadn’t gone out to the Battle of the Gullet in Episode 1, Rhaenyra (Emma D’Arcy) would have died instead. But now, she is queen, and while a rebellion appears to be brewing in King’s Landing, Rhaenyra has her guards (and Daemon) at her disposal. We also have the assurance that the Dance of the Dragons doesn’t end until she or her brothers die, and we still have Season 4 to wait for, so Rhaenyra will make it out of this season alive, despite her losses.
Daemon Targaryen: Most Likely to Die
Whoever’s killing the Gold Cloaks is surely coming for Daemon (Matt Smith) next. He’s a skilled swordsman and brutal in battle for sure, but like Ormund, his hubris is terrifying. He dreams of taking over the world with dragons and has a history of defying Rhaenyra, which may not end well for him. But I hope he makes it through this season, because Fire & Blood has a legendary dragon duel waiting for him in the fourth season, and I’d very much like to watch that.
Frequently Asked Questions
Criston Cole, Ormund Hightower, Aegon Targaryen, and Daemon Targaryen carry the highest odds, driven by recklessness, wounded pride, and the show’s push toward the First Battle of Tumbleton.
Gwayne Hightower, Aemond Targaryen, and Rhaenyra Targaryen are least likely to die this season. Aemond commands Vhagar and has book-based plot armor; Rhaenyra is protected by her guards and Daemon; Gwayne has already abandoned his side’s suicide mission.
House of the Dragon Season 4, the final season, is expected to premiere in 2028. It will cover the remaining events of the Dance of the Dragons, the Targaryen civil war depicted across the series.
House of the Dragon Season 3 has already diverged from George R.R. Martin’s Fire & Blood in character outcomes. In the book, Gwayne Hightower is killed by Luthor Largent when Rhaenyra takes over King’s Landing, but the show skips this and makes Gwayne march with Criston and his army instead.
The Dance of the Dragons is the Targaryen civil war depicted in House of the Dragon and Fire & Blood, fought between Rhaenyra Targaryen and her half-brothers over the Iron Throne. The conflict doesn’t resolve until Rhaenyra or her brothers die, and in the book, no clear winner is declared.
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