The biggest surprise of the 2025 midterm elections, especially in the Senate race, is that it wasn’t boring. Voters were especially keen on showing up to the polls despite the absence of a headline-grabbing presidential race. Since the 1987 Constitution established our current legislative setup, the turnout of registered voters during midterm elections has averaged 73.5 percent. In 2025, a record 82.2 percent of registered voters (57,350,968 in all) shaded their ballots.
Midterm elections are seen as a referendum on the incumbent president, who, without fail, begins their term with overwhelming congressional majorities. It was obvious that the electorate was animated in unprecedented numbers to express their opinion. And without doubt, the opinion was unfavorable towards President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. In countries such as the United States, it is the norm for independent news media to sponsor specific exit polling of voters that reveals the reasons behind their votes. This is not a practice in the Philippines (too expensive for our own independent news media, apparently; independence being shorthand for funds-deprived), so a more precise diagnosis of why voters voted on election day is not readily available. Still, the raw numbers offer some general observations.
The historic 2025 turnout showed that voters this time were especially driven to vote, and to vote against the incumbent administration.
Since the first EDSA Revolution, the administration-led coalition had won a comfortable majority of Senate seats (usually nine of them); this time, the Marcos Jr.-endorsed Alyansa Para Sa Pagbabago ng Pilipinas won only six seats. Or five, if Camille Villar, whose ultimate loyalties seemed ambiguous in the end, were to be excluded. The only time since 1986 that the party in power failed to capture the majority of Senate seats was in the remarkable 2007 Senate elections (the only one Tito Sotto lost in), where the administration coalition was hampered by the massive (and still enduring) unpopularity of former President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo. Her “Team Unity” (also known as “MaS PARA SA KiDZ Mo”) ticket won only two seats. Yet, 2007 also saw an unusually low turnout of 65.5 percent, revealing an electorate that was driven to apathy, especially after the disillusioning 2004 presidential election. In contrast, the historic 2025 turnout showed that voters this time were especially driven to vote, and to vote against the incumbent administration.
Leni Robredo’s 2022 Campaign still has legs
Why was this the case? Another key surprise in 2025, one that triggered tears of joy among those in my online feeds, was the unexpected topping performances of Bam Aquino, who placed second, and Kiko Pangilinan, who placed fifth. Their unexpected heights, as well as those of good governance advocates Heidi Mendoza and fiery progressive Luke Espiritu, fueled dreams of reviving the liberal/progressive coalition that held power from 2010 to 2016. No doubt, this coalition’s legislative efficacy will be bolstered by their increased congressional numbers, coupled with the equally unexpected rise of party-list organizations Akbayan and Mamamayang Liberal.
(At this point, a brief interjection, a suggestion to liberals/progressives. Unlike in past years, barangay-level congressional results are now readily available online. There have been users on X, such as @bnstim, @ian_maps, and @maparoons, who have been prolific in mapping and analyzing Senate and congressional results down to the barangay level. It can be clearly identified which barangays have shown overwhelming wins for liberals/progressives in 2022 and 2025. With that information, it would be derelict for the liberals/progressives not to mount campaigns to seize control of barangays in the forthcoming barangay elections and then demonstrate liberal/progressive strength not just in elections, but in actual governance, even if starting at the barangay level.)
No doubt that the movement established by the Leni Robredo campaign in 2022 proved it still has legs, despite seeming dormant outside online spaces in the years since. 2025 saw the injection of fuel for the dreamed liberal/progressive revival, and the creation of unforeseen expectations for 2028. But does the fact that the popularity of Aquino/Pangilinan was undermeasured by the polls explain the surprising 2025 election results?
Duterte’s Impact — For Better Or Worse
Bong Go topped the Senate race in 2025, with 47.3 percent of the vote. This is unsurprising, considering how skillfully he has branded the Malasakit Centers in his own name and image. I, myself, in my own personal interactions with the healthcare system, have resorted to uttering “Bong Go” as shorthand for those centers otherwise established by Republic Act No. 11463. What is more surprising, and revelatory of national trends, is Bato dela Rosa’s performance in placing third, with 36.2 percent of the vote. Unlike Go, dela Rosa’s raison d’être as an elected politician is his patron, former President Rodrigo Duterte, whose values and interests intertwine with those of the former Philippine National Police chief. Just two months earlier, polls showed dela Rosa hovering only between the fifth and 15th position.
The detention and subsequent remand to the International Criminal Court custody of Duterte on March 11 could have signaled the Dutertes as a spent force. It would take an unimaginable overhaul in leadership and mentality of the ICC before we can even realistically contemplate the possibility that the 80-year-old former president would ever again return to the Philippines while still alive — not even the possible ascent to the presidency of Vice President Sara Duterte can change that. Yet it can never be expected for voters to be realistic when they dream.
Read the rest of the story in The State of Affairs issue of Rolling Stone Philippines. Pre-order a copy on Sari-Sari Shopping, or read the e-magazine now here.
Rolling Stone Philippines November 2025 Issue, Now Available at SariSari Shopping
